[Korea's financial standing hyomun newspaper reporter] mitdolatda the second quarter sentiment is 2 years and 9 months of continuous baseline manufacturer. Thanks to the global economic recovery in the export sector sentiment has improved dwaetjiman, the domestic economy is still difficult to forecast.
Chamber of Commerce for the recent nationwide over 2200 intended for manufacturers conducted by the 'second quarter of 2017 economic outlook index (BSI) Survey results, the national economic outlook index rose 21 points to 89 aggregate gotta rise from the previous quarter.
However, since the third quarter of 2014 (103) has 11 branches can not exceed the continuous reference value (100) were positive outlook than a negative outlook.
◇ exports trickle-down effect of weakening blame
Said, "the domestic political situation in the US presidential election results surrounded Although the significantly improved compared to the first quarter was uncertainty is heightened sentiment is still dark side" "that the trickle-down effect of domestic demand due to the strong exports was significantly weaker than in the past on to in the warmth of the export sectors, such as semiconductors, petroleum products, it is unclear whether it can be spread to the overall economy, including the domestic market, "he said.
On the other hand, the game the second quarter of the export sector forecast was 21 points higher than the previous quarter (82) to 103. It is beyond the threshold is only two years. Since January 2015, 19 months a continued decline in exports seems to stop for a expectations reflected in export recovery, including the last five consecutive months of growth that followed.
Advisory Committee (Yonsei University economics professor) on for Cho Seonghun, "The 2016 monthly average real income of the household Korea real income growth, such as reduction of 0.4% compared to the previous year has been consistently lower than the GDP growth rate since the 2000s," and "an aging population and higher household weakening of private consumption to structural problems, such as holding level showed, "he said a skeptical eye will continue for some time.
◇ Regional huibi also staggered
Out of the sentiment of domestic manufacturers not meet criterion 2 years 9 months went intersect the huibi by region. While the first half of the budget early execution (70%) Expectations acts Gwangju and the sentiment index of Pyeongchang Olympic SOC investment is being Gangwon, Chungbuk, Daejeon, Jeju proceed higher, Chungnam, Daegu, etc. were below the reference value.
The 11th Chamber of In (on for less) Kwangju 113, Gangwon-111, showed that the Chungbuk 102 · Jeju 101, charging 100 such as these local businesses Economic Outlook Index (the BSI) utdolah the baseline premonition the boom. Conversely, including Gyeongsangnam 96 Incheon 95, Gyeongsangbuk 93 and 88 match, Ulsan Chonnam respectively 87, 85, Seoul and Busan 82 JEONBUK 80 and 70, Chungcheongnam cod 66, etc. was found to bone recession deep.
Respondents were most concerned about the normal pressure of the US and China. △ revealed a net of worry to worry about, such as non-tariff barriers Saad retaliation for China's great and a 59.2% △ America Trump risk is 47.9%, △ raw materials such as crude oil volatility 38.3%, △ 0.4%, including North Korea risk '14.
In particular, whether influenced by corporate management to Saad retaliation, China has a half (50.9%) degree of yes responses in the survey. Concerns regarding the risks Trump details △ dollar exchange rate fluctuations were most likely 46.3%. It was followed in order, including possible US interest rates (28.0%), import regulations, including anti-dumping duties of 22.7%, 12.2%, non-tariff barriers, border three 3.3%.
Lee Donggeun full-time vice president, said, "Since the global financial crisis seems to have accompanied major economic growth in 10 years, but our companies also true that many constraints and uncertainties as to take advantage of opportunities in the domestic economic recovery," the KCCI.
Followed by "through the drastic regulatory reform in government and political organizations helped to make the day feasting positively, hope the normal cycle to relieve the anxiety of such legislation and regulatory pressures," he said.
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