[Korea hyerin nine financial newspaper reporter] suggests the outlook rea be the end of the ROK-US interest rate spread based on the reverse of this year. Hyundai Economic Research Institute expects the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate and three times or so, the US benchmark interest rate is higher than the case of Korea base rate this year.
Recent US economic recovery is expected to be three times this year, including a March rate hike many times.
Hong Jun-pyo Hyundai Economic Research Institute, US economic growth showed improvement last year recorded a growth rate of 1.6% per year, said, "CPI annual inflation dwaeteumyeo last year expanded to factors such as rising oil prices in the fourth quarter of last year based on recorded a 1.8% (yoy), "he said.
In addition, Hong researcher for the US job market 'was recorded a similar level as in February based on the natural rate of unemployment and the unemployment rate continues to decline, nonfarm new payrolls has maintained a January 15 million people or more since the end of last year, "he said .
On the other hand, considering the continued slow growth of Korea's Korea policy rate is expected to remain for the time being to freeze the flow. In this case it appears the benchmark interest rate in Korea is lower than the reversal of the US policy rate.
Hong researchers 'next to you at the end 2017, the US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.40% level, the Bank of Korea froze the base rate of the current level of 1.25% this year based on Korea-US interest rate spread is expected to be approximately -0.15 percentage points' he explained.
Meanwhile, Hyundai Economic Research Institute predicted the US The rate hike would bring the dollar appreciation.
Hong researchers vulnerable was known to be vulnerable to "emerging from a lot of the dollar debt countries will increase the burden of debt, especially if the drop its currency value greater burden will be will be weighted, saying, 'external shocks five countries ( fragile 5) is a high proportion of the total US dollar debt appear to be particularly vulnerable to future US dollar debt was strong 'he said.
It also expected the Bank of Korea monetary policy dilemma. The direction of domestic policy rate is the explanation for the time being will have to face the dilemma between lowering incentives to follow impression incentives such as domestic household debt and low growth rings off repayment burden to curb foreign capital outflow.
Hong added that the researchers' criteria of the Bank of Korea interest rate margin will be limited to such concerns, as well as foreign investment outflows likely rise to further expand the domestic growth of household debt.
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